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By Matt Duffy, Carex Consulting

December – the month most known for predicting what will happen ”next year” (rumor is there’s also a few Holidays?!). I’ve played the prediction game in the past and have learned an important lesson – I’m terrible at predicting the future. I made the mistake of reviewing my predictions over the past few years and it’s not just that I often missed the mark, but the predictions we’re mostly useless – unemployment will rise (2023), tech hiring will slow (2022), remote hiring will plummet (2021). I am taking myself out of the prediction game.

This year, I’ll shift from predicting what will happen, to looking at some data and share what should happen. Here are some thoughts on two themes and how to respond.

Job Tenure – People are changing jobs at a rapid pace. Let’s look at the data:

• The average job tenure is just 3.9 years
• However, broken down by age group, it tells a more interesting story:
  • The median tenure of workers ages 55 to 64 is 9.8 years
  • The median tenure of workers ages 25 to 34 is only 2.8 years
• It’s a continual downward trend (it was 4.6 years 10-years ago); given the generational trends, the number will almost certainly continue to drop

Given this data, what should companies do? Create actionable and common-sense Internal Mobility Programs. Employees have a desire to change jobs – frequently. Given this fact, organizations should strongly consider implementing internal mobility programs that proactively provide employees with new/different opportunities in their organization. Mobility doesn’t have to be “upward”, lateral mobility often addresses the root problem. An important nuance – be proactive. Employment fluidity is part of our new reality; don’t be afraid to proactively recruit top performers to new jobs. Meaning, don’t wait for someone to express interest in moving. It’s counterintuitive, but you should proactively recruit your employees to other roles/teams. Yes, that means giving your internal recruiting team authority to recruit your own employees. What’s worse – losing your top performers to a new team, or losing them to a new company?